GET READY AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON!

The unpredictability of mother nature’s forces continues to baffle the minds of the top meteorologists in the Caribbean, USA, and by extension, worldwide. With the hurricane season soon to reach its peak, (late August through September, with a midpoint on September 10) meteorologists have updated their statistics on the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Taking into consideration the recent spate of heat waves and rain, does this surprise you?

% Of Named Storms Per Month

With just under a month until the peak of hurricane season, NOAA released an updated forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The most recent forecast increases their original prediction of a “near normal” 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to an “above normal” season. 

The outlook now calls for a 70% chance of 14 to 21 named storms, with six to 11 reaching hurricane strength and two to five major hurricanes. 

NOAA’s original 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast was released in May and called for 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine reaching hurricane strength and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. 

Hurricanes that hit St Lucia  between Aug - Oct
Hurricanes	Month	Year
EDITH	SEPT	1963
BEULAH	SEPT	1967
ALLEN	AUG	1980
KLAUS	OCT	1990
TS DEBBY	SEPT	1994
DEAN	AUG	2007
MATTHEW	SEPT	2007
TOMAS	OCT	2010

The increased forecast numbers are due to current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm sea surface temperatures, NOAA says

What does that mean for us? We have been known to be people that procrastinate a lot – we never take anything seriously. Persons have been known to criticize Met officers and radio announcers when a predicted bad weather forecast took another turn. The frequency of the hurricane season updates should act as a deterrent against complacency and we MUST be prepared for any eventuality, period.

We must also take cognizance of the fact that we are now in the most notorious part of the Hurricane Season. If there is one reason to pay attention during this stage of the season, consider 93 percent of major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale) - those responsible for the most destruction in any hurricane season, occur during August through to October.

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