This Hurricane Season - The Worse is Yet to Come!

The unpredictability of mother nature’s forces continues to baffle the minds of the top meteorologists in the USA, and by extension, worldwide. For the second time this year these meteorologists have come out to update their statistics on the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Does this surprise you?

Peak Months for Storms

You may of course recall that from May 16, to July 18, 2017 we did consistently post hurricane articles imploring you to take this Hurricane Season seriously and get prepared. Our facebook page https://facebook.com/rayneaucip on July 14 also echoed similarly sentiments.

This update could not be more timely than now to remind you of the Texas devastation by Hurricane Harvey which narrowly spared us.Your efforts towards Hurricane Preparedness must take center stage NOW.  (see video below)

The number of named storms forecast to develop in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has increased slightly in the final forecast issued Friday by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

                                                     Hurricane Preparedness A total of 16 named storms and eight hurricanes are expected in the Atlantic Basin, according to the CSU forecast, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach. Three of the eight hurricanes are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. (https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/saffir-simpson-hurricane-wind-scale)

The updated forecast is above the Atlantic Basin's 30-year historical average (1981-2010) of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

CSU has slightly increased the forecast for named storms compared to the last update from July 5, which called for 15 named storms. It's significantly higher than the initial April forecast of 11 named storms and four hurricanes.

 Why is this? “A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic is generally associated with lower surface pressures, increased mid-level moisture and weaker trade winds, creating a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification," said the CSU team.

The CSU team does caution that considerable uncertainty remains. This is in part due to conditions present that would hinder tropical development, such as the cooler than normal water temperatures in the far North Atlantic and unusually strong wind shear over the past few weeks in the Caribbean. However, hurricane-enhancing conditions are likely to dominate, leading to the expectation of an active season.

What does that mean for us? We have been known to be a people that procrastinate a lot – we never take anything seriously. Persons have been known to criticize Met officers and radio announcers when a predicted bad weather forecast took another turn. The frequency of the Hurricane season updates should act as a deterrent against complacency and  that we MUST be prepared for the 2017 Hurricane Season, period.

We must also take cognizance of the fact that we are now in the most notorious part of the Hurricane Season. If there is one reason to pay attention during this time of the season, consider 93 percent of major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale), those responsible for the most destruction in any hurricane season, occur from August through October.

Hurricanes that hit St Lucia  between Aug - Oct
Hurricanes	Month	Year
EDITH	SEPT	1963
BEULAH	SEPT	1967
ALLEN	AUG	1980
KLAUS	OCT	1990
TS DEBBY	SEPT	1994
DEAN	AUG	2007
MATTHEW	SEPT	2007
TOMAS	OCT	2010

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